Skip to main content

When the cluster of entrepreneurial errors that result from an artificial lowering of the interest rate are revealed, what, according to the...

I answer this question with some trepidation, because the Austrian school bears roughly the same relation to economics as geocentrism does to astrophysics. It is a thoroughly debunked pseudoscience with absolutely no basis in empirical fact. Certain Austrian economists have contributed worthwhile ideas to modern economics (much as geocentrists did contribute to mathematics, geometry, and physics in their day), but continuing to believe in Austrian economics in today's era of experimental cognitive economics is irresponsible.

That said, it may still be worthwhile to try to understand what the Austrian school says, if only to understand where it went wrong. So, I've gone and cited the Austrian Economics Wiki about what they think causes business cycles and how one should respond to them, which is almost completely wrong and in many ways literally backward. 

Austrians argue that the business cycle is caused by excessive intervention of the central bank in monetary policy, that during the "boom" where the economy is near full employment and growth is strong, the central bank is actually holding interest rates too low and creating credit that shouldn't exist, which (for reasons they never fully explain) supposedly leads otherwise rational entrepreneurs to make bad investments. But eventually all this credit becomes unsustainable, the floor falls out from under everyone, and the recession happens as all the bad investments are forced to liquidate.

What are we supposed to do in this situation, they say?

You can pretty much always guess what the Austrian answer is: Nothing. We are supposed to do nothing, never intervene in any way, and the free market will somehow magically sort itself out. Austrians have an essentially unlimited faith in the power of free markets to behave optimally regardless of the circumstances, and a similarly unlimited faith in the evil of government intervention. This is not at all what serious economists believe.

Mainstream Keynesian/neoclassical economics (the Neoclassical Synthesis) says that the proper response in a recession is to lower interest rates, and if they hit zero, then also engage in massive deficit spending to put money back into the economy. The cause of recessions is still debated by mainstream economists (and in fact different recessions may have different causes), but this basic response of lowering interest rates to fight the recession is the mainstream consensus.

Yet Austrians claim, based on no empirical evidence whatsoever, that this will somehow make the recession worse. They seem to view recessions as a morality play: You sowed the thunder of unsustainable credit, now reap the whirlwind of a recession. I've heard them call Keynesian monetary policy "hair of the dog" as if low interest rates were like alcohol addiction. (Ironically, what's the best way to fight addiction? Slow tapering of dosage over time. So even if we were addicted to low interest rates in some sense, it would still be better to gradually raise them over time rather than abolishing the central bank and seeing what happens. And let me emphasize that there's no evidence that low interest rates cause recessions in any case.)

Indeed, Austrian economists do not seem to understand that central bank policy is almost entirely reactive; the central bank doesn't just arbitrarily lower interest rates, they lower interest rates to reach inflation and unemployment targets. They respond to recessions. Saying that the central bank causes recessions is like saying that band-aids cause cuts and chemotherapy causes cancer.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

What is the meaning of "juggling fiends" in Macbeth?

Macbeth is beginning to realize that the three witches have been deceiving him since he first encountered them. Like jugglers, they have kept changing their forecasts in order create confusion. This is particularly apparent when the Second Apparition they raise in Act IV,   Scene 1 tells him that no man of woman born can overcome him in hand-to-hand battle--and then Macbeth finds himself confronted by the one man he has been avoiding out of a... Macbeth is beginning to realize that the three witches have been deceiving him since he first encountered them. Like jugglers, they have kept changing their forecasts in order create confusion. This is particularly apparent when the Second Apparition they raise in Act IV,   Scene 1 tells him that no man of woman born can overcome him in hand-to-hand battle--and then Macbeth finds himself confronted by the one man he has been avoiding out of a sense of guilt, and that man tells him: Despair thy charm. And let the angel whom thou still hast serve...

In Martel's Life of Pi, how does writing a diary help Pi Patel build on his leadership skills?

At the end of chapter 73, Pi first divulges the fact that he had started a diary after about a week alone at sea. Pi claims that he wrote about "practical stuff" (208) such as what he caught for food, foreseeable problems and solutions, Richard Parker, and reflections about specific events that occurred. In a sense, Pi is the captain of his ship; therefore, he must take responsibility for himself and his crew. He can... At the end of chapter 73, Pi first divulges the fact that he had started a diary after about a week alone at sea. Pi claims that he wrote about "practical stuff" (208) such as what he caught for food, foreseeable problems and solutions, Richard Parker, and reflections about specific events that occurred. In a sense, Pi is the captain of his ship; therefore, he must take responsibility for himself and his crew. He can do this by writing down events, problems and solutions, and reflections to look back on when confronted with repeated problems. It can ...

Discuss movements that were inspired by the Civil Rights Movement and list one success for each group.

African-Americans contributed in a very big way during World War II. These contributions were demonstrated at home and on the battlefield. After the war, African-Americans properly felt it was time for them to achieve equality with white Americans. During the 1950's, the modern Civil Rights Movement was born and it had a number of successes (integration of the military and Brown vs. Board of Education as examples.) This success inspired other activists to demand change... African-Americans contributed in a very big way during World War II. These contributions were demonstrated at home and on the battlefield. After the war, African-Americans properly felt it was time for them to achieve equality with white Americans. During the 1950's, the modern Civil Rights Movement was born and it had a number of successes (integration of the military and Brown vs. Board of Education as examples.) This success inspired other activists to demand change for their agendas. Two examples of moveme...